Wednesday, 10 April 2013
Tuesday, 9 April 2013
COAL INDIA
My Trade :
1-Apr-13 : LONG : 311.80
MACD crossover with divergence
The high crossed 20 SMA of BB
4-Apr-13 : SQUARE OFF : 313.55
Against trend - Below 20 SMA BB
Gap down with high volume, so thought will go down
Profit Booked : Rs. 1,750/-
1-Apr-13 : LONG : 311.80
MACD crossover with divergence
The high crossed 20 SMA of BB
4-Apr-13 : SQUARE OFF : 313.55
Against trend - Below 20 SMA BB
Gap down with high volume, so thought will go down
Profit Booked : Rs. 1,750/-
Monday, 8 April 2013
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES
8-Apr-2013 (11 PM AEST)
Let's talk about Hindalco Industries. It's of special choice
because I have bought many lots of it! :-)
Why Hindalco?
I was doing some studies, like when MACD, RSI, Stoch all are favourable - why a stock "sometimes" give surprises. I'm after a clear working strategy. I then came across this indicator "OBV". OBV would often move before price
About OBV :
Why Hindalco?
I was doing some studies, like when MACD, RSI, Stoch all are favourable - why a stock "sometimes" give surprises. I'm after a clear working strategy. I then came across this indicator "OBV". OBV would often move before price
About OBV :
On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as
a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down
days. The On Balance Volume (OBV) line is simply a running total of positive and
negative volume.
OBV rises when volume on up days outpaces volume on down days.
OBV falls when volume on down days is stronger. A rising OBV reflects positive
volume pressure that can lead to higher prices.
Conversely, falling OBV reflects negative volume pressure that
can foreshadow lower prices.
Expect prices to move higher if OBV is rising while prices are
either flat or moving down. Expect prices to move lower if OBV is falling while
prices are either flat or moving up.
The absolute value of OBV is
not important. Chartists should instead focus on the characteristics of the OBV
line.
1.
Define the trend for OBV.
2.
Determine if the current trend matches the trend for the
underlying security.
3.
Look for potential support or resistance levels. Once broken,
the trend for OBV will change and these breaks can be used to generate signals.
Notice that OBV is based on closing prices. Therefore, closing
prices should be considered when looking for divergences or support/resistance
breaks. And finally, volume spikes can sometimes throw off the indicator by
causing a sharp move that will require a settling period.
Bullish and bearish divergence signals can be used to
anticipate a trend reversal. These signals are truly based on the theory that
volume precedes prices. A bullish divergence forms when OBV moves higher or
forms a higher low even as prices move lower or forge a lower low.
A bearish divergence forms when OBV moves lower
or forms a lower low even as prices move higher or forge a higher high. The
divergence between OBV and price should alert chartists that a price reversal
could be in the making.
About Hindalco:
It’s OBV signaling that the trend is changed. :-)
Supported by MACD Divergence, RSI Divergence. I’m quite sure this will shoot.
Let’s watch if it makes me rich!
Sunday, 7 April 2013
Some tips for quick profit
1. Check 52 week near high / low stock (click on the below link)
Spider Analytics - 52-Week HIGH Nearing Stocks
Spider Analytics - 52-Week LOW Nearing Stocks
2. Wait for at least 15 min after the market is open. See if the market is up or down.
3. If up, buy 52 week high (see if the technical indicators are supporting)
4. If down, sell 52 week low (see if the technical indicators are supporting)
5. Look at ATR. If daily movement is Rs. 20, we must book profit at Rs. 10.
6. Make sure that stock has not moved more than 25% of it's ATR of the day. If ATR is Rs. 20/-, stock should not have moved Rs 5 from our point of entry. If it has moved by more than 25%, wait for 1 hour after the market is open - high chances that stock will retrace and give another opportunity.
Spider Analytics - 52-Week HIGH Nearing Stocks
Spider Analytics - 52-Week LOW Nearing Stocks
2. Wait for at least 15 min after the market is open. See if the market is up or down.
3. If up, buy 52 week high (see if the technical indicators are supporting)
4. If down, sell 52 week low (see if the technical indicators are supporting)
5. Look at ATR. If daily movement is Rs. 20, we must book profit at Rs. 10.
6. Make sure that stock has not moved more than 25% of it's ATR of the day. If ATR is Rs. 20/-, stock should not have moved Rs 5 from our point of entry. If it has moved by more than 25%, wait for 1 hour after the market is open - high chances that stock will retrace and give another opportunity.
Fibonacci Retracement
1. It works best when the market is trending and it works best with the higher time frame.
2. Go long on a retracement at a fibo support level when there is uptrend. Go short on a retracement at a fibo resistance level when in downtrend.
3. Find decent significant swings highs and swings lows.
4. for downtrend, click on swing high and drag the cursor to the most recent swing low.
5. For uptrend, click on swing low and drag the cursor to the most recent swing high.
Below is the graph for M&M. I have mentioned in my earlier post that M&M will go down. It will be interesting to see if there is a support at 61.8% level of fibo, which is significant for pullback situations. See the support is at 840, but which is broken. Lets see tomorrow.
2. Go long on a retracement at a fibo support level when there is uptrend. Go short on a retracement at a fibo resistance level when in downtrend.
3. Find decent significant swings highs and swings lows.
4. for downtrend, click on swing high and drag the cursor to the most recent swing low.
5. For uptrend, click on swing low and drag the cursor to the most recent swing high.
Below is the graph for M&M. I have mentioned in my earlier post that M&M will go down. It will be interesting to see if there is a support at 61.8% level of fibo, which is significant for pullback situations. See the support is at 840, but which is broken. Lets see tomorrow.
HOW TO ANALYSE?
Behind the charts and graphs and mathematical formulas used to analyze market trends are some basic concepts that apply to most of the theories employed by today's technical analysts.
Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."
Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.
Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.
Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI.
Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.
Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study.
Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."
Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.
Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.
Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI.
Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.
Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study.
ONGC
ONGC is in DOWNTREND.
Prediction for 8th April - May not go beyond 317. It will touch the upper line of resistance and go down.
MACD, RSI, BB are advising it will go up. Let's monitor.
Thursday, 4 April 2013
TITAN INDUSTRIES
4-Apr-13 : SHORT
Strategy :
1. Decending Hawk1 on bearish signals
2. Gone down of 200 DMA
AUROBINDO PHARMA
4-Apr-2013 (BUY)
1. Crossed 200 DMA – bullish.
2. The resistance lines are shown on
chart. It’s broken 2, and at third resistance.
3. BB SMA 20 Crossed.
4. Volume increased.
5. MACD Crossover
5. MACD Crossover
( Note - This stock may retrace (kinda pullback, take support at the given lines and shoot)
