My Strategy for 5 stocks in my portfolio

Raymond

1.       The ADX has started declining.

2.       The stock is still below 20 DMA. Can be closed after 20 DMA is crossed, as in past it has received resistance at 20 DMA.

3.       IKH – just touched the 9d conversion.

4.       PSAR still RED

5.       Stochastic / RSI – showing it’s oversold. No divergences.

6.       OBV Positive Divergence (fig below).

Conclusion: HOLD until 20 DMA and PSAR.

1.       It is likely to go up on the basis of OBV divergence, ADX declining.

2.       May have resistance at 20 DMA. So let’s hold and see what happens until 20 DMA, IKH, PSAR.

IDEA

This was short-SOLD on 28^th June, when nifty was 100 points up but the stock wasn’t breaking 141. At the last hour it broke and closed lil higher (just 50 paise). As per price action now and observed on 28^th June, it’s bearish.

I have done this trade on RSI Negative Divergence (Blue Lines). However, note that there is OBV breakout (Red Lines). ADX is flat above 25 with +DMI though. Price above 20 DMA.

IKH Doesn’t support SHORTING at all.  PSAR GREEN.

OBV and RSI -

MACD Negative Divergence -

Conclusion:

Tried to catch the move ahead in time. This is RISKY. Hold until 151 or sell whenever you get first opportunity. It can retrace but may not be a HUGE downfall.

Siemens

ADX reversing though above 20.

Crossed BB, but closed below 20 DMA.

CCI Positive Divergence

IKH – in cloud now going up. The high has crossed the cloud.

MACD going up. See the Kishore’s idea of histogram cross. This was exit point of short trade, it may reverse.

 OBV Divergence. However note the past divergence, it doesn’t confirm this OBV divergence works. Study OBV divergence topic more carefully.

PSAR GREEN

Conclusion :

See on Monday, and if this goes up – EXIT from this stock. Can’t wait.

Tech Mahindra

A clear W

The black candle is within white one

ADX 20+ and rising. It was 2 weeks under 20, so explosive.

Way above 20 DMA, so may retrace.

IKH supporting BUY

MACD Supporting

PSAR GREEN

RSI/Stoch Overbought but ADX is 20+ so don’t worry for RSI. May retrace but it’s alright. Volume of black candle is very low.

Conclusion: This stock may give us good return. So hold, we will revisit the technicals again.

McDowell-N

Broken down on huge volume

The long legged black candle is something which is a cause of worry, but it’s closed below the support.

Ideal ADX for shorting -

BB – way below the 20 DMA and on lower BB

IKH – the leg has come down of cloud. The candle is in cloud.

MACD – ideal – crossing 0 line, and signal line is about to break ZERO as well.

Additional info – In general – keep eye on momentum divergence. See, how it was weakening and then it hit TOP and started going down. This could have been shorted right there. Never mind, it still looks a good short.

PSAR RED

RSI and Stoch show oversold, but doesn’t matter – ADX is too promising!

Conclusion: This will give good money in short. Hold and revisit technical.

TECH MAHINDRA

TECH MAHINDRA is MY BET NOW. It will ROAR!!! CMP 1040.

ACC LIMITED

22-June-2013

ACC LIMITED -
SELL if opens below 1163.6 on 24-June-2013
LTP : 1163.6
SL : 1183

Basis : Higher selling volumes indicating weaker bulls' strength, RSI going down, faster MA below slower.

ALLAHABAD BANK

It's 13th May 00:45 AM

ALLAHABAD Bank. I suggest SHORT. This should move downwards. and it's below 200 DMA too.

Must do tomorrow

I'm going to buy RELINFRA tomorrow.. stock is at 90% discount!

COAL INDIA

My Trade :

1-Apr-13 : LONG : 311.80

MACD crossover with divergence
The high crossed 20 SMA of BB

4-Apr-13 : SQUARE OFF : 313.55

Against trend - Below 20 SMA BB
Gap down with high volume, so thought will go down

Profit Booked : Rs. 1,750/-

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES

8-Apr-2013 (11 PM AEST)

Let's talk about Hindalco Industries. It's of special choice because I have bought many lots of it! :-)

Why Hindalco?
I was doing some studies, like when MACD, RSI, Stoch all are favourable - why a stock "sometimes" give surprises. I'm after a clear working strategy. I then came across this indicator "OBV". OBV would often move before price

About OBV :

On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. The On Balance Volume (OBV) line is simply a running total of positive and negative volume. 

OBV rises when volume on up days outpaces volume on down days. OBV falls when volume on down days is stronger. A rising OBV reflects positive volume pressure that can lead to higher prices.

Conversely, falling OBV reflects negative volume pressure that can foreshadow lower prices.

Expect prices to move higher if OBV is rising while prices are either flat or moving down. Expect prices to move lower if OBV is falling while prices are either flat or moving up.

The absolute value of OBV is not important. Chartists should instead focus on the characteristics of the OBV line.

1.     Define the trend for OBV.

2.     Determine if the current trend matches the trend for the underlying security.

3.     Look for potential support or resistance levels. Once broken, the trend for OBV will change and these breaks can be used to generate signals.

Notice that OBV is based on closing prices. Therefore, closing prices should be considered when looking for divergences or support/resistance breaks. And finally, volume spikes can sometimes throw off the indicator by causing a sharp move that will require a settling period.

Bullish and bearish divergence signals can be used to anticipate a trend reversal. These signals are truly based on the theory that volume precedes prices. A bullish divergence forms when OBV moves higher or forms a higher low even as prices move lower or forge a lower low.

A bearish divergence forms when OBV moves lower or forms a lower low even as prices move higher or forge a higher high. The divergence between OBV and price should alert chartists that a price reversal could be in the making.

About Hindalco:

It’s OBV signaling that the trend is changed. :-) Supported by MACD Divergence, RSI Divergence. I’m quite sure this will shoot. Let’s watch if it makes me rich! 

Some tips for quick profit

1. Check 52 week near high / low stock (click on the below link)
Spider Analytics - 52-Week HIGH Nearing Stocks
Spider Analytics - 52-Week LOW Nearing Stocks

2. Wait for at least 15 min after the market is open. See if the market is up or down.

3. If up, buy 52 week high (see if the technical indicators are supporting)

4. If down, sell 52 week low (see if the technical indicators are supporting)

5. Look at ATR. If daily movement is Rs. 20, we must book profit at Rs. 10.

6. Make sure that stock has not moved more than 25% of it's ATR of the day. If ATR is Rs. 20/-, stock should not have moved Rs 5 from our point of entry. If it has moved by more than 25%, wait for 1 hour after the market is open - high chances that stock will retrace and give another opportunity.

Fibonacci Retracement

1. It works best when the market is trending and it works best with the higher time frame.
2. Go long on a retracement at a fibo support level when there is uptrend. Go short on a retracement at a fibo resistance level when in downtrend.
3. Find decent significant swings highs and swings lows.
4. for downtrend, click on swing high and drag the cursor to the most recent swing low.
5. For uptrend, click on swing low and drag the cursor to the most recent swing high.

Below is the graph for M&M. I have mentioned in my earlier post that M&M will go down. It will be interesting to see if there is a support at 61.8% level of fibo, which is significant for pullback situations. See the support is at 840, but which is broken. Lets see tomorrow.

MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA

7th April.

SLOW DOWNTREND

Good to short! Prev CLOSE 837.9

HOW TO ANALYSE?

Behind the charts and graphs and mathematical formulas used to analyze market trends are some basic concepts that apply to most of the theories employed by today's technical analysts.

Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."

Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.

Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.

Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI. 

Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.

Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study.

ONGC

ONGC is in DOWNTREND. 

Prediction for 8th April - May not go beyond 317. It will touch the upper line of resistance and go down.

MACD, RSI, BB are advising it will go up. Let's monitor.

TITAN INDUSTRIES

4-Apr-13 : SHORT
Strategy :
1. Decending Hawk1 on bearish signals
2. Gone down of 200 DMA

AUROBINDO PHARMA

4-Apr-2013 (BUY)

1.       Crossed 200 DMA – bullish.

2.       The resistance lines are shown on chart. It’s broken 2, and at third resistance.

3.       BB SMA 20 Crossed.

4.       Volume increased.
5.    MACD Crossover

( Note - This stock may retrace (kinda pullback, take support at the given lines and shoot) 

ASIAN PAINTS

19-Mar-2013 (SELL)

1. OVERBOUGHT (RSI, Stoch way above)
2. MACD Red Histogram started.